What the Current Iranian Conflict Could Mean for the Region’s Expanding Attractions Industry

Over the past decade, the Middle East, particularly the Gulf region, has been one of the most ambitious frontiers for our global theme park development. From Abu Dhabi’s Yas Island to Saudi Arabia’s massive new Qiddiya project, billions of dollars have been committed toward building what leaders in the region envision as the next great global tourism corridor.

But we all know history has taught our industry a simple truth, tourism and geopolitical stability are tightly connected. We have seen this in facets of Asia (China) and in Russia over a decade ago when its leisure market was fledgling and emerging. When conflict emerges, even thousands of miles away from a destination, travel visitation psychology and development plans can shift quickly.

With the current war unfolding in the Middle East, the question now facing developers, operators, and investors is straightforward. Will the region’s theme park boom continue on its current trajectory or will it face meaningful short and long-term disruption? We have just learned the planned IAAPA Expo in Abu Dhabi, a major first for the global association, was postponed until April 2027 due to the safety concerns and the ability to travel to the region. This was a prudent decision by IAAPA, as there was no other course of action to be considered.

Before the current conflict escalated, the region was experiencing one of the largest entertainment infrastructure expansions in our modern theme park history.

You will recall in 2025, the Walt Disney Company made a major announcement of plans to partner with Miral Group to develop a new Disney theme park resort on Yas Island in Abu Dhabi, Disney’s first park in the Middle East. At an estimated cost of $10 billion, the project will be financed and operated by Miral, with Disney providing creative design and licensing through its Imagineering division.

The choice of location was the correct area to develop the Disney theme park in the UAE due to its already established critical mass of leisure projects. Yas Island already houses several major indoor attractions, including Ferrari World, Warner Bros., and SeaWorld Abu Dhabi, and that ecosystem continues to expand. A new Harry Potter themed land is currently being added to Warner Bros. World as part of a major expansion.

Meanwhile, in Saudi Arabia, the scale of investment is even more dramatic. The Kingdom’s entertainment transformation under Vision 2030 includes the development of Qiddiya City near Riyadh, a massive entertainment district that will ultimately include multiple theme parks, sports venues, and cultural destinations.

The flagship attraction is Six Flags Qiddiya City, which opened on December 31, 2025, and features record-breaking rides including Falcon’s Flight, designed to be the world’s fastest, tallest and longest roller coaster. In total, tens of billions of dollars are being deployed across the region. But these projects are not immune to geopolitical headwinds, which they are currently experiencing. I am of the belief that the most immediate risk for theme parks in the region is not a lack of infrastructure, though that too remains lean, but rather “tourism reluctance”, driven primarily by visitor confidence, or the lack thereof.

Source:  Six Flags Qiddiya

We have known for decades that destination theme parks rely on discretionary travel. When news headlines are dominated by conflict, even destinations far removed geographically can experience hesitation from international tourists, and war can be the “beast" that has the great downturn impact. The USA has seen tourism from Canada over the last few years fall off abruptly. An example of how tariffs can affect neighborly travel, Canadian travel to the U.S. is off by 30%. Over the last few years, Florida has seen a decline in tourists from South America due to immigration and currency devaluation issues. The drop has been significant and has affected the Orlando and Tampa parks. So, devastating war to a region can be the worst happening of all to deter tourists.

Looking back historically at similar conditions, we have seen three predictable impacts develop during similar situations. Here is what we found.

1. International travel softening. Europeans, Asians, and North Americans often take a cautious “wait and see” approach when conflict dominates regional headlines. They do not want to be put in harm’s way.

2. Airline capacity shifts. Airlines quickly adjust routes when geopolitical risk increases. That can reduce connectivity to certain hubs almost overnight. The region is experiencing this now on basically all routes to the UAE.

3. Insurance and corporate travel restrictions. Corporate policies sometimes temporarily restrict travel to regions perceived as unstable, even if the destination itself is safe.

It is almost assured in the near term that this condition will diminish attendance growth at attractions in the region. It also creates a problematic situation for Saudi Arabia’s first major theme park, Six Flags Qiddiya City. It opened with great fanfare at the end of 2025. The park has the physical scale and technological ambition to be one of the world’s premier thrill parks. Yet, early attendance indicators suggested the ramp-up period may be slower than initially projected. The Iranian War adds a monumental impediment to this park’s recent start. The park is designed to accommodate roughly 10,000 visitors per day, but like many new parks, it must build awareness and tourism travel early on, certainly by positive word of mouth. You have to have guests for this to occur. But, geopolitical tensions such as these that have been layered on top of this new park will greatly compound challenges.

Ramadan and Eid travel patterns will also play a role in determining whether visitation accelerates or remains cautious. The word is that people are staying hunkered down, and that the EID travel period is going to be severely curtailed.

Here are issues I believe that need to be considered as the region and leisure industry moves forward to get back on track.

The Long-Term Outlook: Strategic Commitment Remains

Despite the uncertainty, it would be a mistake to assume the region’s theme park ambitions will slow dramatically. The governments driving these developments are thinking in 20- to 30-year economic cycles, not quarterly returns. Projects like Qiddiya and Yas Island serve several strategic objectives:

• Diversifying economies beyond oil

• Expanding tourism

• Creating domestic entertainment infrastructure

• Retaining regional leisure spending that previously flowed abroad

Saudi Arabia alone has set a goal of attracting 150 million visitors annually by 2030 as part of its tourism strategy. That scale of ambition suggests the broader development trajectory is unlikely to reverse. What may change is timing, pacing, and investment sequencing.

The Key Issues I believe Theme Park Operators Should Watch are as Follows:

1. Travel Perception vs. Reality. Even if a destination remains physically safe, global media coverage can influence visitor behavior.

2. Workforce Mobility. Many parks in the region rely heavily on international labor. Conflict can complicate visas, Expats recruitment, and general mobility throughout the region.

3. Supply Chain Disruption. Ride systems, show technology, and infrastructure components often come from Europe or Asia. Shipping delays (The Straits of Hormuz) and insurance costs can rise quickly during regional instability.

4. Financing and Capital Markets. While Gulf governments have deep capital reserves, global financial markets react quickly to geopolitical risk, potentially affecting financing costs. We saw this occur in Dubai on several of their parks.

5. Regional Tourism Competition. Destinations like Dubai and Abu Dhabi have long benefited from stability and aviation connectivity. Maintaining that perception will be essential. However, with hotels like The Fairmont Palm being struck by debris and set afire, injuring four people, this does not bode well for travelers.

6. Domestic vs. International Attendance. Parks heavily dependent on international tourism are more exposed to geopolitical perception shifts than those built primarily for local residents. The local imported workers typically cannot afford the expensive new parks, therefore higher income locals and tourists are the key to their ongoing success.

Source:  Pascal - Wikimedia Commons

A Final Perspective

From an industry standpoint, the Middle East remains one of the most fascinating case studies in global theme park development. In many ways, it represents the next generation of destination entertainment, as we have seen with Disney and Universal both being interested in the area. These are massive government-backed projects, with cutting-edge indoor environments designed for extreme climates, and integrated tourism ecosystems. These projects are a new design approach for our industry.

But we must remain mindful that, as the current conflict clearly reminds us, the theme park business does not operate in isolation. It exists at the intersection of tourism, economics, politics, and public sentiment.

The Middle East development boom will certainly continue. However, in my view, the industry has been set back at least five years, despite the vast sums of capital already committed and still to come. Tourists ultimately vote with their feet, and the pathways to these destinations have been soiled. Restoring confidence will take time. The real question is not whether development will proceed, but how resilient it will prove to be when the geopolitical winds inevitably shift.

The IAAPA made a very prudent decision yesterday to postpone IAAPA EXPO MIDDLE EAST until April 2027. With the assistance of the partners in the UAE, we hope that it will once again come back on track quickly, properly, and safely.

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