Possible “Attendance Drift”: Are Regional Theme Parks Facing a Behavioral Visitation Shift to Destination Parks?

After roughly seventy years of modern operation, the theme park business has reached the stage every mature industry eventually encounters, stability. Not decline but maturity, and maturity brings a different challenge than growth relevance. I have been watching our industry’s maturity, along with attendance growth erosion, continued elevated pricing, and guest reaction to same. The following is what I am noticing.

We have seen in the destination parks, primarily Orlando, that the once peak / valley attendance patterns that occur over the calendar month have basically flattened out, and now the month-to-month attendance patterns during high and low periods mostly vary 20%.

For example, Disneyworld Magic Kingdom attendance averages approximately 48,000 - 50,000 per day, but during the high holiday, peaks can range between 70,000 and 80,000 guests. Simple to say, the park is never remotely empty. Adding to this analysis, we are seeing that Disney executives have openly acknowledged that their primary park consumer now sits in the upper income tiers. Also, they are seeing growing evidence that price increases are pushing some lower-income families away from the market. They explain 61% of U.S. households earning under $100,000 annually are increasingly avoiding theme park vacations because of cost. These surveys have indicated that many families even incur debt to pay for a Disney vacation because they want a unique memorable family experience. Some survey respondents have indicated they expect to receive more at Disney or Universal than they are getting at the local theme parks.

Source:  Walt Disney World

Disney has adopted the Revenue Model Evolution of “Spend Per Guest” vs “More Guests.” 

• Old model was Maximize Attendance → New model is Maximize Spending Per Guest

• Old model was Attract Broad Middle-Class Market → New model is Attract Higher Income Vacationers

• Old model was Low Entry Price → New model is Tiered Premium Pricing

Recent published earnings illustrate that growth at U.S. parks has been flat to modest, and per-guest spending continues to rise. Spending by higher-income tourists increased significantly at Disney and Universal. A slowdown seen across the broader theme-park industry was largely from middle- and lower-income travelers pulling back. We are seeing that the Orlando market is slowly moving toward becoming a “Premium Leisure Model.”

With this in mind, let’s look at what is possibly on the come for both destination and regional theme parks.

Presently it is a well-known fact, that for decades, regional parks have consistently drawn from the same surrounding populations, carefully managing attendance attrition through marketing, promotions, and scheduled capital investment. This model has worked well while the industry and population were expanding. Today, domestic growth has largely ended. So, what is next? Let’s take a look.

In the 1970s through the 1990s, a new attraction could generate a 7% to 10% attendance bump at the front gate. Today, a new attraction often produces 2% to 4%, if successful. Overall industry attendance growth now hovers (and has for quite a few years) around 1.5% to 2% annually. Let me be clear, the public has not abandoned themed entertainment, such as ours, but instead has become selective about where leisure dollars are spent. All parks are reporting this to be the case.

It is particularly important to note that we are seeing a broader behavioral shift is underway across leisure. In markets such as Las Vegas, visitors increasingly decide activities in real time rather than pre-planning. We are seeing where mobile discovery has replaced fixed itineraries. Guests now mix dining, attractions and participatory experiences based on what feels compelling in the moment (it’s the live for the moment approach!). Leisure is becoming more and more flexible, stacked and experience driven. This is a definite pattern theme parks should closely watch because this approach pulls from the regional visit due to its “impulse planning” aspects. Competition has also changed. Parks now compete with the home environment. It is reported that streaming and gaming consume more than six hours daily for many regulars. The competitor is no longer across town. The competitor is the couch, and it has become time consuming for our guests.

These changes raise legitimate questions that we at ITPS have been observing and that prompt us to ask, “Are we seeing early signs of visitation shifting from regional parks toward more expensive destination parks?” Not abandonment, but redirection, fewer local annual trips, and larger experiential vacations being planned, possibly several years out in lieu of frequent trips to the local parks?

We saw following COVID-19 that demand surged faster than park operations could recover. We experienced labor shortages, supply disruptions, and rising wages that, in some cases, forced park price increases. When guests returned eager for normal visit, they encountered higher prices and fewer inclusions (actually seeing surcharges being added to many programs). Parks found the necessary Covid-driven operational decisions created a lasting guest impact, with premium pricing for familiar experiences. Once perceptions like this form, visitation frequency can decline and entertainment selectivity can rise. The impending industry maturity helps exacerbate this condition.

It is no secret destination resorts remain expensive. A family of four can spend $7,000 to $10,000 on a multi-day vacation in Orlando. Yet operators report relatively stable attendance alongside rising per-guest spending. The recent pattern we are seeing is fewer visits and higher spend. I believe we could be seeing the annual family vacation becoming a possible once-every-three-year milestone trip. Based on burn-out and expense, it is possible.

Let’s keep in mind that public perception is also changing. As prices rose across the industry, guests began categorizing all parks as expensive. The question shifted from “Can we afford the big trip?” to “If we’re spending serious money anyway, should we make it unforgettable? “It begs the question, “Is this signaling a major shift in visitation planning?” This is what we are watching.

We are also seeing that an “experience gap” is widening. Leisure is separating into tiers, luxury immersive trips, and frequent short social outings, with the traditional regional parks in the middle where competition is fiercest. While regional parks are managing inflation and staffing challenges, destination resorts accelerated technological innovation at historic speed, raising expectations for immersion and storytelling across all new attractions. We are seeing an all-time escalation in technological advances in rides and attractions at the destination parks.

It’s accepted that regional parks rely on frequency, where destination parks rely on anticipation and longer visitation planning. Season pass guests may visit regionals multiple times each year until familiarity sets in, leading to, “We’ve done that ride or attraction quite a few times, maybe we skip this season and do something else.” Destination parks however remain motivated, planned months ahead and tied to milestones. My question is, as the emotional cost gap narrows, could decisions shift from convenience to significance in favor of creating a rare family memory?

It’s not unusual to see such resets occur across mature industries. Loyalty does evolve and consumers reevaluate value relative to excitement and newness. I believe theme parks are experiencing their own recalibration. The definition of “worth it?” appears to be moving upward, and large-scale immersive parks currently set that benchmark. Ergo, the purpose of this observation is a possible visitation shift in progress.

There are several reinforcing trends suggesting potential attendance redistribution, such as experience prioritization, fewer trips taken, and creating bigger memories. Now add to this social media amplification, along with breakthrough attractions that are gaining instant global visibility. Also, we are seeing technology differentiation and immersion now outweighing height and speed. Add to this financial planning tools, such as payment plans which are making major vacations more attainable. I think we are seeing that individually, these trends have minimal impact. However, collectively, it’s possible they could reshape people’s visitation patterns.

If “destination drift” is emerging, regional parks can mitigate it, but not by repeating past strategies. I believe they have certain key considerations they must assess, such as:

• Pricing clarity: simplify and bundle offerings. Guests accept cost more easily with little confusion. Make pricing transparent from the beginning of the season (consider Dynamic Pricing).

• Distinct experiences: seasonal festivals, rotating entertainment, fringe season programs, and test to see if nighttime environments drive repeat visits.

• Targeted technology: projection mapping, interactive queues and story overlays which refresh existing rides, and more high-tech embellishments to attractions.

• Continuous novelty product introduction: new does not always mean steel, it means change in F&B, retail, shade/comfort, and access.

I did not write this observation as a prediction of regional park decline, but a conceivable advanced warning of potential behavioral adjustments in regional theme park visitation. Epic Universe serves as a good example. It definitely demonstrated in 2024 that people will wait a season, possibly holding back on local market park visitation to wait for a new super attraction to open. I definitely believe this occurred in 2024. I also believe destination parks, with their continuing increase in ride and attractions technology enhancements, will increasingly capture more milestone vacations because they are built for this reason.

How to Train Your Dragon - Epic Universe:  Source Universal Orlando Resort

With this occurring, it is also incumbent upon regional parks to dominate routine visits, redefining “routine” as dynamic rather than repetitive experiences. The experience choice guests gauge today appears not to be local versus distant, but rather, “is it is ordinary versus remarkable.” The real decision I see developing among guests is whether the chosen experience delivers something genuinely special to them. So, we need to be aware that location no longer drives the decision and that “spectacular” is becoming the issue.

The industry is mature. Future growth will come less from population expansion and more from emotional relevance. Regional parks do not need to become destination parks, they need to become indispensable. If they succeed at this, attendance drift never materializes. If they fail, I think it will occur slowly, one skipped season at a time, until suddenly it doesn’t.

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